CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 97¢ · $519 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$519.24
$0.99
97.2¢ → 97.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 97.2¢ | $452.23 | $453.59 | +$1.36 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 97.4¢ | $57.24 | $57.31 | +$0.07 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.9¢ | $6.3 | $5.91 | -$0.39 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $1.37 | $1.27 | -$0.1 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.6¢ | $1.12 | $1.16 | +$0.04 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
Invested
$452.23
Value
$453.59
PnL
+$1.36
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$57.24
Value
$57.31
PnL
+$0.07
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$5.91
PnL
-$0.39
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$1.37
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0.1
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$1.12
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.04
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.