Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: CF Trival Valderas O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 39¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$75.6
-$0.62
Research grade
NeutralOver at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 37.2¢ | $34.22 | $34.92 | +$0.7 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 38.7¢ | $34.25 | $33.17 | -$1.08 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.75 | +$0.15 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.88 | -$0.27 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.88 | -$0.13 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
Invested
$34.22
Value
$34.92
PnL
+$0.7
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$34.25
Value
$33.17
PnL
-$1.08
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.27
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.13
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.