Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CF Trival Valderas (50%) · CF Trival Valderas at 56¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
CF Trival Valderas
4
CF Trival Valderas 50%
1 arb excluded
$399.65
-$1.68
Research grade
NeutralCF Trival Valderas at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on CF Trival Valderas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | CD Leganésavg 43.9¢ | $313.79 | $315.81 | +$2.02 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
| └ CD Leganés leg | CD Leganésavg 43.9¢ | $180.65 | $177.11 | -$3.54 | |
| └ CF Trival Valderas leg | CF Trival Valderasavg 54.7¢ | $133.14 | $138.71 | +$5.57 | |
 VeryLucky888 | CF Trival Valderasavg 57¢ | $130.91 | $73.83 | -$1.38 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
SE sentrio<$100 | CF Trival Valderasavg 60.5¢ | $6.05 | $5.7 | -$0.35 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | CD Leganésavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 25% 213-642 (855) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | CD Leganésavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.15 | +$0.05 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
Invested
$313.79
Value
$315.81
PnL
+$2.02
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$130.91
Value
$73.83
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$0.35
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
213-642 (855)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.