Spread: CD Leganés (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CD Leganés (50%) · CD Leganés at 61¢ · $599 held · ends Nov 10

CD Leganés61¢CF Trival Valderas39¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Leganés

Consensus Traders

CD Leganés 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$598.89

Combined PnL

-$3.13

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 61¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Leganés at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Leganés

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CD Leganés61%

CF Trival Valderas39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Leganés2 traders

Total Value$192

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$7.85

CF Trival Valderas2 traders

Total Value$35.93

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$4.72

CD Leganés — 50%CF Trival Valderas — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Leganés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Leganés 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCD Leganés 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000CD Leganés 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 38.3¢	$350.65	$370.96	+$12.11	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
└ CF Trival Valderas leg	CF Trival Valderasavg 38.3¢	$194.86	$196.71	+$5.26
└ CD Leganés leg	CD Leganésavg 59.7¢	$170.61	$174.25	+$6.85
UP UpTheBlues	CD Leganésavg 65.5¢	$167.29	$155.92	-$8.44	57% 60850-45925 (106775)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	CD Leganésavg 61.2¢	$36.2	$36.08	+$0.59	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 32.1¢	$19.24	$21.63	+$2.5	50% 33876-34123 (67999)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	CF Trival Valderasavg 33¢	$12.21	$14.31	+$2.22	46% 31006-36459 (67465)

FlaznorpARB<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$350.65

Value

$370.96

PnL

+$12.11

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

Both legs:

CF Trival Valderas$194.8638.3¢+$5.26

CD Leganés$170.6159.7¢+$6.85

UpTheBlues

CD Leganés

Invested

$167.29

Value

$155.92

PnL

-$8.44

Record

57%

60850-45925 (106775)

omnibus-076daa<$100

CD Leganés

Invested

$36.2

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$19.24

Value

$21.63

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

33876-34123 (67999)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

CF Trival Valderas

Invested

$12.21

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$2.22

Record

46%

31006-36459 (67465)

Research grade

NeutralCD Leganés at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CD Leganés

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Leganés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Leganés 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCD Leganés 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000CD Leganés 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Leganés wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.