Will CD Leganés win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 89¢ · $501 held · ends Nov 10

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$500.98

Combined PnL

-$15.48

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 88.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$500.56

Total Shares514

Combined PnL-$15.63

No2 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 87¢	$289.24	$481.04	-$15.88	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$26.31	$9.43	+$0.46	—
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$5.25	$5.09	-$0.16	57% 60850-45925 (106775)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	—
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.14	$0.21	+$0.08	50% 33896-34147 (68043)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.14	$0.21	+$0.07	47% 123-136 (259)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$289.24

Value

$481.04

PnL

-$15.88

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.31

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$0.46

Record

—

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

60850-45925 (106775)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

33896-34147 (68043)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

123-136 (259)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.