Will CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$143.91

Combined PnL

$2.88

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 89.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$131.41

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$1.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.5

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$1.12

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$67.09	$96.89	+$1.21	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$32.72	$33.4	+$0.52	27% 133-354 (487)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.5	$5.5	+$0.27	24% 184-596 (780)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.75	23% 176-590 (766)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$2	+$0.1	23% 174-599 (773)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$1.1	$1.12	+$0.03	47% 171-192 (363)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$67.09

Value

$96.89

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$32.72

Value

$33.4

PnL

+$0.52

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.27

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.75

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.