Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$1.9K
-$69.69
92.4¢ → 82.5¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
68h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$119.14 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 97¢ | $185 | $157.99 | -$21.46 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $130.66 | $129.82 | +$11.28 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $117.8 | $100.6 | -$11.21 | 57% 12643-9732 (22375) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $30.18 | $27.72 | -$2.49 | 47% 1713-1907 (3620) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $4.59 | $10.48 | +$67.48 | 73% 12972-4916 (17888) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Noavg 3.8¢ | $2.05 | $7.9 | +$5.85 | 47% 10585-12110 (22695) |
Invested
$1,716.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$119.14
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$185
Value
$157.99
PnL
-$21.46
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$130.66
Value
$129.82
PnL
+$11.28
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
poshposhInvested
$117.8
Value
$100.6
PnL
-$11.21
Record
57%
12643-9732 (22375)
Invested
$30.18
Value
$27.72
PnL
-$2.49
Record
47%
1713-1907 (3620)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$67.48
Record
73%
12972-4916 (17888)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$5.85
Record
47%
10585-12110 (22695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.