Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: O/U 7.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 42¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$62.81
-$1.54
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $103.1 | $47.89 | -$1.76 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $15 | $6.23 | -$0.38 | 50% 27997-27469 (55466) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $5.34 | $4.57 | -$0.77 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $0.5 | $2.08 | +$1.58 | 47% 116-132 (248) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.16 | $1.94 | -$0.21 | 59% 52520-37212 (89732) |
Invested
$103.1
Value
$47.89
PnL
-$1.76
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$15
Value
$6.23
PnL
-$0.38
Record
50%
27997-27469 (55466)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$4.57
PnL
-$0.77
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$1.58
Record
47%
116-132 (248)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$0.21
Record
59%
52520-37212 (89732)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.