Spread: Valencia CF (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Valencia CF (100%) · Valencia CF at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Valencia CF
5
Valencia CF 100%
$1.5K
$110.84
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralValencia CF at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Valencia CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Valencia CFavg 56.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$92.77 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Valencia CFavg 50¢ | $78.75 | $91.35 | +$12.6 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Valencia CFavg 49¢ | $18.38 | $21.76 | +$3.38 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Valencia CFavg 51.7¢ | $15.81 | $17.59 | +$1.77 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Valencia CFavg 52¢ | $2.01 | $2.34 | +$0.33 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
Invested
$1,324.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$92.77
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$78.75
Value
$91.35
PnL
+$12.6
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
Invested
$18.38
Value
$21.76
PnL
+$3.38
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$15.81
Value
$17.59
PnL
+$1.77
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.