Will UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.7K
-$12.23
95.4¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $845.91 | $799.8 | -$1.91 | 48% 92-98 (190) |
 poshposh | Noavg 96.2¢ | $555.88 | $546.63 | -$9.25 | 58% 11427-8282 (19709) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.9¢ | $300 | $283.65 | -$7.2 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
DI dips.<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $42 | $39.71 | +$0.23 | 46% 7315-8501 (15816) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $20.03 | $23.64 | +$3.61 | 41% 1295-1880 (3175) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $8.35 | $10.64 | +$2.29 | 48% 7158-7651 (14809) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$845.91
Value
$799.8
PnL
-$1.91
Record
48%
92-98 (190)
poshposhInvested
$555.88
Value
$546.63
PnL
-$9.25
Record
58%
11427-8282 (19709)
Invested
$300
Value
$283.65
PnL
-$7.2
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Invested
$42
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$0.23
Record
46%
7315-8501 (15816)
Invested
$20.03
Value
$23.64
PnL
+$3.61
Record
41%
1295-1880 (3175)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$2.29
Record
48%
7158-7651 (14809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.