UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$856.02
-$24.81
78.6¢ → 51¢
-35% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
119h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $651.85 | $691.95 | +$40.1 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $229.21 | $436.85 | +$207.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.5¢ | $422.57 | $255.1 | -$167.48 | |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $92.79 | $55.75 | -$37.03 | 51% 994-958 (1952) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $21.45 | $47.78 | +$26.33 | 46% 7315-8501 (15816) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $56.44 | $42.33 | -$14.11 | 60% 894-585 (1479) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.34 | $9.26 | +$5.01 | 58% 11427-8282 (19709) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $8.68 | $5.81 | -$2.88 | 53% 8072-7284 (15356) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $5.33 | $3.14 | -$2.13 | 53% 6370-5754 (12124) |
Invested
$651.85
Value
$691.95
PnL
+$40.1
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.79
Value
$55.75
PnL
-$37.03
Record
51%
994-958 (1952)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$47.78
PnL
+$26.33
Record
46%
7315-8501 (15816)
Invested
$56.44
Value
$42.33
PnL
-$14.11
Record
60%
894-585 (1479)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.34
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$5.01
Record
58%
11427-8282 (19709)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$2.88
Record
53%
8072-7284 (15356)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.33
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$2.13
Record
53%
6370-5754 (12124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.