Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Club Portugalete vs. Real Unión Club: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 50¢ · $647 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$647.09
-$17.12
68.2¢ → 50¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 68.4¢ | $438.42 | $349.52 | -$88.89 | 47% 11658-13336 (24994) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 31.5¢ | $105.6 | $137.4 | +$31.8 | 53% 1396-1248 (2644) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 31.1¢ | $58.64 | $77.03 | +$18.38 | 52% 1352-1271 (2623) |
VE Venusian | Overavg 31.6¢ | $151.53 | $68.95 | +$21.03 | 51% 1359-1321 (2680) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $7.07 | +$0.31 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $9 | $4.1 | +$0.23 | 49% 14657-15357 (30014) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.99 | $3.02 | +$0.03 | 54% 2563-2222 (4785) |
Invested
$438.42
Value
$349.52
PnL
-$88.89
Record
47%
11658-13336 (24994)
Invested
$105.6
Value
$137.4
PnL
+$31.8
Record
53%
1396-1248 (2644)
Invested
$58.64
Value
$77.03
PnL
+$18.38
Record
52%
1352-1271 (2623)
Invested
$151.53
Value
$68.95
PnL
+$21.03
Record
51%
1359-1321 (2680)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.31
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$9
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.23
Record
49%
14657-15357 (30014)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
$3.02
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
2563-2222 (4785)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.