Will UD Pinatar win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$15.05
96.8¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $730.5 | $750.39 | +$19.89 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $158.31 | $201.58 | +$2.06 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.6¢ | $148.26 | $144.8 | -$3.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 1¢ | $10.05 | $56.78 | +$5.53 | |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $82.33 | $78.38 | -$3.96 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $25.36 | $24.59 | -$0.77 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $4.84 | $4.79 | -$0.04 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.09 | $0.02 | -$0.07 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RN1Invested
$730.5
Value
$750.39
PnL
+$19.89
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$158.31
Value
$201.58
PnL
+$2.06
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.33
Value
$78.38
PnL
-$3.96
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$24.59
PnL
-$0.77
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.04
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.