CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 75¢ · $326 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$326.17
$0.8
74.6¢ → 75¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 74.6¢ | $262.32 | $271.17 | +$0.65 | 51% 26303-24938 (51241) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 | 58% 47026-33907 (80933) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $18.75 | +$0 | 49% 1535-1615 (3150) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.75 | +$0.05 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.75 | +$0.05 | 51% 1633-1544 (3177) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.75 | +$0.05 | 50% 1593-1621 (3214) |
Invested
$262.32
Value
$271.17
PnL
+$0.65
Record
51%
26303-24938 (51241)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$25
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47026-33907 (80933)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1535-1615 (3150)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
1633-1544 (3177)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1593-1621 (3214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.