CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: CD Pamplona O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 54¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$127.49
$3.83
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 49.5¢ | $98.32 | $101.17 | +$2.85 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 60.5¢ | $12.1 | $10.2 | -$1.9 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $11.2 | $7.33 | +$2.18 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $3.95 | $4.65 | +$0.7 | 25% 214-632 (846) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $4.15 | $4.15 | +$0 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
Invested
$98.32
Value
$101.17
PnL
+$2.85
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$1.9
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$2.18
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.7
Record
25%
214-632 (846)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.