Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: SD Eibar O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 18¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 10

Over18¢Under82¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$64.09

Combined PnL

$7.5

Research grade

AvoidOver at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$42.34

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$1.85

Over4 traders

Total Value$21.75

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$5.65

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 77.1¢	$40.49	$42.34	+$1.85	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$6	$8.4	+$2.4	25% 212-653 (865)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$6	$8.4	+$2.4	25% 212-653 (865)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$3	$4.2	+$1.2	25% 214-632 (846)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.75	-$0.35	31% 169-382 (551)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$40.49

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.