CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: SD Eibar O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 60¢ · $610 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$609.71
-$14.78
66.6¢ → 59.5¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 67¢ | $268.5 | $222.42 | -$46.09 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 54.7¢ | $202.15 | $216.64 | +$14.49 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.7¢ | $140.57 | $172.11 | +$31.54 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.6¢ | $61.58 | $44.53 | -$17.05 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Overavg 33¢ | $132.25 | $162.3 | +$30.06 | 25% 214-632 (846) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $3.35 | +$1 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $3.35 | +$0.5 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.65 | -$0.25 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
Invested
$268.5
Value
$222.42
PnL
-$46.09
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$202.15
Value
$216.64
PnL
+$14.49
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.25
Value
$162.3
PnL
+$30.06
Record
25%
214-632 (846)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$1
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.5
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.25
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.