Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CD Pamplona, while the market favors SD Eibar (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: SD Eibar (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CD Pamplona (67%) · CD Pamplona at 45¢ · $349 held · ended Nov 3

SD Eibar55¢CD Pamplona45¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Pamplona

Consensus Traders

CD Pamplona 67%

Total Value

$348.7

Combined PnL

-$28.17

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 45¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Pamplona at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Pamplona

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors SD Eibar 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

SD Eibar55%

CD Pamplona45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SD Eibar2 traders

Total Value$160.6

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$69.08

CD Pamplona4 traders

Total Value$188.1

Total Shares418

Combined PnL-$97.25

SD Eibar — 33%CD Pamplona — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on CD Pamplona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Pamplona 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSD Eibar 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCD Pamplona 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCD Pamplona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CD Pamplona 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	SD Eibaravg 31¢	$87.42	$155.1	+$67.68	53% 1393-1240 (2633)
FL FlaznorpCTR	CD Pamplonaavg 68.1¢	$192.44	$127.12	-$65.32	51% 25532-24237 (49769)
VeryLucky888CTR	CD Pamplonaavg 69¢	$100	$45	-$24	58% 46229-33359 (79588)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	CD Pamplonaavg 70¢	$15.4	$9.9	-$5.5	52% 1348-1268 (2616)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	CD Pamplonaavg 63¢	$8.51	$6.08	-$2.43	58% 51318-37292 (88610)
rayvanmechelen<$100	SD Eibaravg 41¢	$4.1	$5.5	+$1.4	72% 2469-944 (3413)

Limousin

SD Eibar

Invested

$87.42

Value

$155.1

PnL

+$67.68

Record

53%

1393-1240 (2633)

FlaznorpCTR

CD Pamplona

Invested

$192.44

Value

$127.12

PnL

-$65.32

Record

51%

25532-24237 (49769)

VeryLucky888CTR

CD Pamplona

Invested

$100

Value

$45

PnL

-$24

Record

58%

46229-33359 (79588)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

CD Pamplona

Invested

$15.4

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$5.5

Record

52%

1348-1268 (2616)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

CD Pamplona

Invested

$8.51

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$2.43

Record

58%

51318-37292 (88610)

rayvanmechelen<$100

SD Eibar

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

72%

2469-944 (3413)

Research grade

NeutralCD Pamplona at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

CD Pamplona

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors SD Eibar 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on CD Pamplona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Pamplona 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSD Eibar 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCD Pamplona 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCD Pamplona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CD Pamplona 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Pamplona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.