Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CD Pamplona (38%) · CD Pamplona at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

SD Eibar48¢CD Pamplona52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Pamplona

Consensus Traders

CD Pamplona 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$43.8

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Pamplona at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Pamplona

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SD Eibar48%

CD Pamplona53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Pamplona3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,203

Combined PnL-$127.05

SD Eibar5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,444

Combined PnL+$83.25

CD Pamplona — 38%SD Eibar — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Pamplona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSD Eibar 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000CD Pamplona 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	CD Pamplonaavg 54¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$85.48	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
SE sentrio	CD Pamplonaavg 54¢	$444.54	$410.15	-$34.39	31% 169-382 (551)
MA MadridTimeCTR	SD Eibaravg 44.5¢	$331.22	$382.94	+$51.72	25% 214-632 (846)
LI LimousinCTR	SD Eibaravg 45.2¢	$353.63	$371.65	+$18.03	25% 212-653 (865)
VE VenusianCTR	SD Eibaravg 45.1¢	$218.44	$230.04	+$11.59	25% 212-653 (865)
LI LightParadoxCTR	SD Eibaravg 47.1¢	$200.68	$202.32	+$1.64	25% 213-642 (855)
OD OddstormARB<$100	SD Eibaravg 49¢	$56.62	$55.46	-$1.17	15% 16-94 (110)
└ SD Eibar leg	SD Eibaravg 49¢	$28.9	$29.2	+$0.29
└ CD Pamplona leg	CD Pamplonaavg 53.3¢	$27.72	$26.26	-$1.46
SN SnakeBall<$100	CD Pamplonaavg 58.3¢	$53.73	$46.55	-$7.18	47% 148-167 (315)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	SD Eibaravg 46¢	$3.61	$3.89	+$0.27	44% 79-102 (181)

Flaznorp

CD Pamplona

Invested

$1,955.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$85.48

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

sentrio

CD Pamplona

Invested

$444.54

Value

$410.15

PnL

-$34.39

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

MadridTimeCTR

SD Eibar

Invested

$331.22

Value

$382.94

PnL

+$51.72

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

LimousinCTR

SD Eibar

Invested

$353.63

Value

$371.65

PnL

+$18.03

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

VenusianCTR

SD Eibar

Invested

$218.44

Value

$230.04

PnL

+$11.59

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

LightParadoxCTR

SD Eibar

Invested

$200.68

Value

$202.32

PnL

+$1.64

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

OddstormARB<$100

SD Eibar

Invested

$56.62

Value

$55.46

PnL

-$1.17

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Both legs:

SD Eibar$28.949¢+$0.29

CD Pamplona$27.7253.3¢-$1.46

SnakeBall<$100

CD Pamplona

Invested

$53.73

Value

$46.55

PnL

-$7.18

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

SD Eibar

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$0.27

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

NeutralCD Pamplona at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

CD Pamplona

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CD Pamplona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSD Eibar 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000CD Pamplona 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Pamplona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.