Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: CD Pamplona 1 - 2 SD Eibar?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 11¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$189

Combined PnL

$1.35

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$29.01

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$0.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.52

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$2.21

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 91¢	$130.32	$137.47	+$7.16	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.3¢	$62.04	$70.37	+$8.32
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$68.27	$67.11	-$1.17
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$16.54	$15.95	-$0.59	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$13.2	$14.81	+$1.61	25% 212-653 (865)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$13.33	$13.06	-$0.27	31% 169-382 (551)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$5.39	$5.82	+$0.43	25% 214-632 (846)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.72	$1.88	+$0.16	25% 213-642 (855)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$130.32

Value

$137.47

PnL

+$7.16

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

Both legs:

Yes$62.049.3¢+$8.32

No$68.2791¢-$1.17

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.54

Value

$15.95

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$14.81

PnL

+$1.61

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.33

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$0.27

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0.43

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.2%

10.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$722.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

822.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.