Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: CD Pamplona 1 - 1 SD Eibar?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 20¢ · $605 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$604.55
$319.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.93 | $264.58 | +$181.96 | 60% 171-115 (286) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yes | $228.91 | $228.91 | +$136.52 | 25% 521-1567 (2088) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $75.69 | $58.63 | -$17.06 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $8.58 | $31.65 | +$23.07 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $26.79 | $20.77 | -$5.05 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$0.93
Value
$264.58
PnL
+$181.96
Record
60%
171-115 (286)
Invested
$228.91
Value
$228.91
PnL
+$136.52
Record
25%
521-1567 (2088)
Invested
$75.69
Value
$58.63
PnL
-$17.06
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$31.65
PnL
+$23.07
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$26.79
Value
$20.77
PnL
-$5.05
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.