Exact Score: CD Pamplona 0 - 3 SD Eibar?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 10

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$250.55

Combined PnL

-$2.4

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 90¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$229.98

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$5.97

Yes3 traders

Total Value$20.57

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$3.57

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93¢	$215.89	$208.93	-$6.96	47% 148-167 (315)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$15.74	$19.49	+$3.76	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$15.66	$16.55	+$0.89	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.5	+$0.1	25% 213-642 (855)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.25	$1	-$0.25	31% 169-382 (551)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.01	$0.08	+$0.07	—

SnakeBall

Invested

$215.89

Value

$208.93

PnL

-$6.96

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.74

Value

$19.49

PnL

+$3.76

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$0.89

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.07

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.