Exact Score: CD Pamplona 0 - 2 SD Eibar?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $43 held · ends Nov 10

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$42.59

Combined PnL

-$0.62

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$37.85

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.74

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$1

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.41	$18.02	+$0.61	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$15.66	$15.49	-$0.18	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.35	-$0.05	25% 213-642 (855)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$5.14	$4.29	-$0.85	25% 214-632 (846)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.45	-$0.15	31% 169-382 (551)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.85

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.