Exact Score: CD Pamplona 0 - 0 SD Eibar?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $67 held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$67.07

Combined PnL

-$0.18

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$43.44

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$0.18

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.62

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$0

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 95¢	$21.54	$21.54	+$0	25% 217-656 (873)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$17.34	$16.91	-$0.43	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$13.39	$13.39	-$0	25% 216-657 (873)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$9.1	$9.1	+$0	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.13	$1.13	+$0	31% 170-384 (554)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$21.54

Value

$21.54

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.34

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$0

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.