Will SD Eibar win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 77¢ · $462 held · ended Nov 3

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$461.52

Combined PnL

-$13.95

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 76.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$458.56

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$15.08

No2 traders

Total Value$2.95

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.5¢	$281.09	$271.87	-$9.22	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
BA Bayupati	Yesavg 80¢	$130.2	$113.93	-$4.07	49% 254-268 (522)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$74.22	$65.77	-$1.41	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$3.43	$3.5	+$0.08	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.5	-$0.45	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$1.41	$2.22	+$0.81	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$0.41	$0.72	+$0.31	57% 12279-9333 (21612)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$281.09

Value

$271.87

PnL

-$9.22

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Bayupati

Yes

Invested

$130.2

Value

$113.93

PnL

-$4.07

Record

49%

254-268 (522)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.22

Value

$65.77

PnL

-$1.41

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.41

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.81

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.