Will CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar end in a draw?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 82¢ · $595 held · ends Nov 10

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$594.9

Combined PnL

-$0.17

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 81.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$480.16

Total Shares589

Combined PnL-$1.66

Yes3 traders

Total Value$114.74

Total Shares527

Combined PnL+$1.49

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 82¢	$172.21	$170.19	-$2.02	24% 207-650 (857)
VE Venusian	Noavg 78.1¢	$123.64	$128.29	+$4.65	25% 210-646 (856)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84¢	$99.96	$96.39	-$3.57	25% 210-628 (838)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$94.62	$93.84	+$3.12	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$57.35	$56.45	+$0.1	25% 209-639 (848)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 80¢	$21.49	$21.49	+$0	60% 3440-2335 (5775)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$22.05	$20.1	-$1.95	30% 161-379 (540)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.17	$7.34	-$0.83	35% 177-324 (501)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.48	$0.8	+$0.32	48% 223-237 (460)

Limousin

Invested

$172.21

Value

$170.19

PnL

-$2.02

Record

24%

207-650 (857)

Venusian

Invested

$123.64

Value

$128.29

PnL

+$4.65

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$99.96

Value

$96.39

PnL

-$3.57

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.62

Value

$93.84

PnL

+$3.12

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$57.35

Value

$56.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

25%

209-639 (848)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$21.49

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3440-2335 (5775)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.05

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$1.95

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$0.83

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.