CDA Navalcarnero vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,063

Combined PnL-$596.54

Under7 traders

Total Value$180.03

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL-$411.35

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73.7¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$597.06	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 26.3¢	$79.96	$133.95	+$53.99	36% 548-955 (1503)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$16.46	$20.89	+$4.42	34% 564-1116 (1680)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$7.25	$11.81	+$4.56	32% 542-1134 (1676)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$7.24	$7.59	+$0.34	36% 209-370 (579)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$2.92	$5.14	+$2.22	46% 443-515 (958)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 70.3¢	$14.18	$2.24	+$0.52	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 34.4¢	$263.02	$0.38	-$262.64	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 39.9¢	$214.53	$0.27	-$214.26	33% 539-1116 (1655)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,664.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$597.06

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$79.96

Value

$133.95

PnL

+$53.99

Record

36%

548-955 (1503)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.46

Value

$20.89

PnL

+$4.42

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.25

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$4.56

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$0.34

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.92

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$2.22

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$14.18

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.52

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$263.02

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$262.64

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$214.53

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$214.26

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.