Will CDA Navalcarnero vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 93¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 12

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$244.13

Combined PnL

$0.13

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 93¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$224.77

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$1.83

Yes5 traders

Total Value$19.36

Total Shares271

Combined PnL-$1.7

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94¢	$127.42	$126.06	-$1.36	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 91¢	$48.13	$49.72	+$1.59	46% 440-515 (955)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 90¢	$47.39	$48.99	+$1.6	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$8.22	$6.54	-$1.68	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.76	$4.23	-$0.53	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$3.57	$4.08	+$0.51	33% 558-1111 (1669)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4	$4	+$0	52% 13-12 (25)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.51	$0.51	+$0	27% 52-141 (193)

cigarettes

Invested

$127.42

Value

$126.06

PnL

-$1.36

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$48.13

Value

$49.72

PnL

+$1.59

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$47.39

Value

$48.99

PnL

+$1.6

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$1.68

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.53

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.51

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.