Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-28?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 9.5¢ · $582 held · ends Nov 12

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$581.9

Combined PnL

$24.9

Smart Money Entry

9.6¢ → 9.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$197.93

Total Shares1,697

Combined PnL+$23.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$43.01

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$1.2

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 82.5¢	$325.55	$340.96	+$15.41	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82.5¢	$182.63	$197.02	+$14.4
└ No leg	Noavg 10.9¢	$142.93	$143.93	+$1.01
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$59.74	$82.14	+$22.4	47% 532-590 (1122)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$41.81	$43.01	+$1.2	65% 136-72 (208)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$34.58	$29.59	-$4.99	46% 440-515 (955)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$18.81	$22.99	+$4.18	27% 52-141 (193)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$18.74	$18.44	-$0.3	41% 552-797 (1349)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$12.2	$14.91	+$2.71	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$11	$11	+$0	32% 538-1128 (1666)
FO ForMyFamily1CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$10	$9.5	-$0.5	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$5.73	$5.73	+$0	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$3.44	$3.64	+$0.2	36% 209-369 (578)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$325.55

Value

$340.96

PnL

+$15.41

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Yes$182.6382.5¢+$14.4

No$142.9310.9¢+$1.01

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$59.74

Value

$82.14

PnL

+$22.4

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.81

Value

$43.01

PnL

+$1.2

Record

65%

136-72 (208)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$34.58

Value

$29.59

PnL

-$4.99

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$4.18

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$18.74

Value

$18.44

PnL

-$0.3

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$2.71

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$11

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

ForMyFamily1CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.