Will Real Jaén CF win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 51¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$422.18
$11.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $202.59 | $262.74 | -$9.22 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $179.8 | $178.09 | -$10.07 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $83.79 | $84.65 | +$0.85 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $86.4 | $89.1 | +$6.3 | 38% 93-154 (247) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $39.22 | $43.06 | +$3.84 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $33.9 | $14.85 | +$1.41 | 49% 60-63 (123) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $5.52 | $5.36 | -$0.16 | 48% 35-38 (73) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $8 | $3.96 | +$0.12 | 1% 1-141 (142) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.48 | -$0.07 | 23% 49-165 (214) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $0.3 | $0.64 | +$0.34 | — |
Invested
$202.59
Value
$262.74
PnL
-$9.22
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.4
Value
$89.1
PnL
+$6.3
Record
38%
93-154 (247)
Invested
$39.22
Value
$43.06
PnL
+$3.84
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$33.9
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$1.41
Record
49%
60-63 (123)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$0.16
Record
48%
35-38 (73)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$8
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$0.12
Record
1%
1-141 (142)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.07
Record
23%
49-165 (214)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.34
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.