Will CP Mijas-Las Lagunas win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 77¢ · $471 held · ended Oct 29

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$471.43

Combined PnL

$4.03

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$276.22

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$2.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.67

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$1.04

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$165.55	$170.54	+$0.6	52% 242-224 (466)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.7¢	$91.21	$95.29	+$4.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$78.52	$75.25	-$3.48
CI cigarettes	Noavg 76¢	$136.8	$138.6	+$0	38% 93-154 (247)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 76¢	$138.74	$106.83	+$1.39	25% 86-262 (348)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 72¢	$29.2	$30.8	+$1.6	0% 0-36 (36)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$14.13	$14.13	-$0	26% 87-252 (339)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$7.23	$6.93	-$0.3	23% 49-165 (214)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.71	$3.02	+$1.31	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$0.56	$0.59	+$0.03	49% 60-63 (123)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$165.55

Value

$170.54

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Both legs:

No$91.2173.7¢+$4.08

Yes$78.5224¢-$3.48

cigarettes

Invested

$136.8

Value

$138.6

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

MadridTime

Invested

$138.74

Value

$106.83

PnL

+$1.39

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

0-36 (36)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.13

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.23

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.3

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$1.31

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.