Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 32¢ · $743 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$742.96
$6.96
33.6¢ → 32¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | -$0 | 83% 93-19 (112) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $132 | +$32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $68 | -$32 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 33.7¢ | $156.37 | $148.48 | -$7.89 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 64.1¢ | $122.6 | $131.88 | +$9.27 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $97.48 | $97.48 | +$0 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $80.53 | $84.19 | +$3.66 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $45.53 | $46.91 | +$1.38 | 27% 52-141 (193) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $26.98 | $27.8 | +$0.82 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $4.8 | $4.65 | -$0.15 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.58 | -$0.13 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
-$0
Record
83%
93-19 (112)
Both legs:
Invested
$156.37
Value
$148.48
PnL
-$7.89
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Invested
$122.6
Value
$131.88
PnL
+$9.27
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$97.48
Value
$97.48
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$80.53
Value
$84.19
PnL
+$3.66
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$45.53
Value
$46.91
PnL
+$1.38
Record
27%
52-141 (193)
Invested
$26.98
Value
$27.8
PnL
+$0.82
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.13
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.