CD Tarancón vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$700.24

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 94.5¢

+130% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,843

Combined PnL+$699.19

Over2 traders

Total Value$110.84

Total Shares409

Combined PnL+$1.06

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 35¢	$265.63	$590.06	+$324.43	33% 539-1116 (1655)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 41.2¢	$185.66	$312.52	+$139.67	34% 564-1116 (1680)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 37.5¢	$104.25	$196.11	+$91.85	33% 556-1141 (1697)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 72.4¢	$119.94	$134.1	+$14.17	33% 320-651 (971)
VE Venusian	Underavg 33¢	$69.12	$129.44	+$60.33	32% 542-1134 (1676)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 27¢	$53.29	$117.15	+$63.86	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24.5¢	$88.31	$89.57	+$1.27	36% 209-370 (579)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 69¢	$65.68	$64.85	-$0.83	46% 443-515 (958)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 31.3¢	$21.47	$21.26	-$0.21	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 63¢	$10	$14.52	+$4.52	35% 286-542 (828)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 64¢	$12.8	$13.8	+$1	83% 395-82 (477)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 67¢	$6.4	$6.59	+$0.19	47% 1666-1892 (3558)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$265.63

Value

$590.06

PnL

+$324.43

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$185.66

Value

$312.52

PnL

+$139.67

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$104.25

Value

$196.11

PnL

+$91.85

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$119.94

Value

$134.1

PnL

+$14.17

Record

33%

320-651 (971)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$69.12

Value

$129.44

PnL

+$60.33

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$53.29

Value

$117.15

PnL

+$63.86

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.31

Value

$89.57

PnL

+$1.27

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$65.68

Value

$64.85

PnL

-$0.83

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.47

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$0.21

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$4.52

Record

35%

286-542 (828)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$1

Record

83%

395-82 (477)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.