Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Tarancón vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $283 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$282.63

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$231.23

Total Shares5,357

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over3 traders

Total Value$51.4

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$2.32

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37.4¢	$380.17	$114.95	-$265.21	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
RN1CTR	Underavg 40.8¢	$178.64	$61.19	-$117.46	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 84.9¢	$35.93	$36.42	+$0.49	46% 443-515 (958)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$59.23	$25.02	-$34.21	41% 562-807 (1369)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 23.8¢	$51.81	$20.25	-$31.56	34% 564-1116 (1680)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 89¢	$8.9	$9.99	+$1.09	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 30.5¢	$67.97	$7.93	-$60.04	32% 542-1134 (1676)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.99	+$0.74	27% 52-142 (194)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 38.3¢	$1.2K	$1.54	$-1.2K	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 34.7¢	$142.44	$0.21	-$142.23	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23.2¢	$60.91	$0.13	-$60.78	36% 209-370 (579)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$10	$0.01	-$9.99	35% 286-542 (828)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$380.17

Value

$114.95

PnL

-$265.21

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$178.64

Value

$61.19

PnL

-$117.46

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$35.93

Value

$36.42

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.23

Value

$25.02

PnL

-$34.21

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.81

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$31.56

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.97

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$60.04

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.74

Record

27%

52-142 (194)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$1,176.43

Value

$1.54

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$142.44

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$142.23

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.91

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$60.78

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.99

Record

35%

286-542 (828)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.