Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Levante UD, while the market favors CD Tarancón (78%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (88%) · Levante UD at 22¢ · $166 held · ended Nov 12

Levante UD22¢CD Tarancón78¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Levante UD

Consensus Traders

Levante UD 88%

Total Value

$165.85

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 22.4¢

-49% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLevante UD at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors CD Tarancón 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Levante UD22%

CD Tarancón78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levante UD7 traders

Total Value$155.24

Total Shares2,337

Combined PnL$-1.0K

CD Tarancón1 trader

Total Value$10.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$1.1

Levante UD — 88%CD Tarancón — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Levante UD. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLevante UD 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLevante UD 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Levante UD 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Levante UDavg 46.2¢	$874.55	$136.79	-$737.76	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
FE ferdinand2<$100	CD Tarancónavg 47.5¢	$9.5	$10.6	+$1.1	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 50.7¢	$24.93	$8.86	-$16.07	41% 562-807 (1369)
LI LimousinCTR	Levante UDavg 37¢	$163.31	$4.41	-$158.9	33% 539-1116 (1655)
RN1CTR<$100	Levante UDavg 1¢	$0.1	$2.07	+$1.96	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
VeryLucky888CTR	Levante UDavg 45.6¢	$310.72	$2.04	-$85.54	52% 784-728 (1512)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 38.5¢	$28.76	$0.75	-$28.01	33% 556-1141 (1697)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 46.8¢	$14.99	$0.32	-$14.67	27% 52-142 (194)

FlaznorpCTR

Levante UD

Invested

$874.55

Value

$136.79

PnL

-$737.76

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

ferdinand2<$100

CD Tarancón

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

sentrioCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$24.93

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$16.07

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

LimousinCTR

Levante UD

Invested

$163.31

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$158.9

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

RN1CTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$0.1

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$1.96

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

VeryLucky888CTR

Levante UD

Invested

$310.72

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$85.54

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$28.76

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$28.01

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

OddstormCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$14.99

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$14.67

Record

27%

52-142 (194)

Research grade

AvoidLevante UD at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors CD Tarancón 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Levante UD. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLevante UD 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLevante UD 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Levante UD 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levante UD wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.3%

22.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$310.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

410.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.