Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (67%) · Levante UD at 68¢ · $173 held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Levante UD
6
Levante UD 67%
$172.64
$6.29
66.6¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLevante UD at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Levante UD. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Levante UDavg 70.7¢ | $96.38 | $93.37 | -$3.01 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | CD Tarancónavg 29.2¢ | $30.8 | $33.12 | +$2.32 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Levante UDavg 66.5¢ | $25.93 | $26.33 | +$0.4 | 0% 0-48 (48) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Levante UDavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $10.05 | +$0.87 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Levante UDavg 20¢ | $2.42 | $8.15 | +$5.74 | — |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | CD Tarancónavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.63 | -$0.03 | 23% 49-166 (215) |
Invested
$96.38
Value
$93.37
PnL
-$3.01
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$33.12
PnL
+$2.32
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
Invested
$25.93
Value
$26.33
PnL
+$0.4
Record
0%
0-48 (48)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$10.05
PnL
+$0.87
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$8.15
PnL
+$5.74
Record
—
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$0.03
Record
23%
49-166 (215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.