Will CD Tarancón vs. Levante UD end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $450 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$449.93
$0.43
91.3¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 92¢ | $215.47 | $216.4 | +$0.93 | 33% 544-1120 (1664) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.6¢ | $186.43 | $187.36 | +$0.93 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $19.58 | $18.36 | -$1.22 | 33% 546-1093 (1639) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $12.96 | $13.25 | +$0.29 | 49% 19-20 (39) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.6 | +$0.05 | 52% 183-166 (349) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.51 | $4.34 | -$0.17 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4 | $3.75 | -$0.25 | 32% 524-1097 (1621) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2 | $1.88 | -$0.13 | 50% 1216-1232 (2448) |
Invested
$215.47
Value
$216.4
PnL
+$0.93
Record
33%
544-1120 (1664)
Invested
$186.43
Value
$187.36
PnL
+$0.93
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$1.22
Record
33%
546-1093 (1639)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
19-20 (39)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
183-166 (349)
Invested
$4.51
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$0.17
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
32%
524-1097 (1621)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
1216-1232 (2448)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.