Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Tarancón vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $366 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$365.89
-$467.88
47.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Yesavg 39¢ | $169.62 | $169.62 | +$0 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $160.93 | $153.59 | -$7.34 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39¢ | $92.49 | $92.54 | +$0.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.5¢ | $68.44 | $61.05 | -$7.39 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $35.58 | $34.49 | -$1.09 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $8.35 | $5.01 | -$3.34 | 33% 539-1116 (1655) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $2.7 | -$0.3 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 57.6¢ | $282.96 | $0.25 | -$282.71 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 42.2¢ | $125.38 | $0.15 | -$125.24 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.4¢ | $35.59 | $0.06 | -$35.53 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $19.7 | $0.03 | -$19.67 | 36% 209-370 (579) |
Invested
$169.62
Value
$169.62
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$160.93
Value
$153.59
PnL
-$7.34
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.58
Value
$34.49
PnL
-$1.09
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$3.34
Record
33%
539-1116 (1655)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
Invested
$282.96
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$282.71
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
RN1CTRInvested
$125.38
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$125.24
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$35.53
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$19.67
Record
36%
209-370 (579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.