Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 45¢ · $25 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$25.42
-$1.07
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $9.47 | $10.41 | +$0.57 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $7.92 | $7.12 | -$0.63 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $6.3 | $5.64 | -$0.66 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $2.65 | $2.24 | -$0.35 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
Invested
$9.47
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$0.57
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$0.63
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$0.66
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.