Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 34¢ · $51 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$50.76
$5.45
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $12.88 | $15.64 | +$2.76 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.7¢ | $11.38 | $12.22 | +$0.84 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $9.54 | $9.68 | +$0.14 | 24% 205-638 (843) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $7.38 | $8.97 | +$1.58 | 43% 78-102 (180) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $4.13 | $4.26 | +$0.13 | 24% 201-643 (844) |
Invested
$12.88
Value
$15.64
PnL
+$2.76
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$11.38
Value
$12.22
PnL
+$0.84
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$9.68
PnL
+$0.14
Record
24%
205-638 (843)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$8.97
PnL
+$1.58
Record
43%
78-102 (180)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0.13
Record
24%
201-643 (844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.