Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$99.75
-$0.17
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 93.2¢ | $57.59 | $55.92 | -$1.66 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $26.58 | $26.58 | +$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $9.92 | $9.92 | +$0 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.15 | -$0.45 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.69 | $1.96 | +$1.27 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $0.49 | $1.03 | +$0.55 | 24% 99-314 (413) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.05 | $0.18 | +$0.13 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
Invested
$57.59
Value
$55.92
PnL
-$1.66
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$26.58
Value
$26.58
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$9.92
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0.45
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$1.27
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.55
Record
24%
99-314 (413)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.13
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.