Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Anaitasuna (40%) · CD Anaitasuna at 52¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
CD Anaitasuna
5
CD Anaitasuna 40%
$408.76
-$1.87
52.8¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCD Anaitasuna at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on CD Anaitasuna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | CD Anaitasunaavg 52.8¢ | $269.26 | $262.77 | -$3.9 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Deportivo Alavésavg 46¢ | $69 | $72.75 | +$3.75 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
SE sentrio<$100 | CD Anaitasunaavg 53.3¢ | $38 | $36.83 | -$1.17 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Deportivo Alavésavg 50¢ | $24.07 | $23.11 | -$0.96 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Deportivo Alavésavg 47¢ | $12.9 | $13.31 | +$0.41 | 25% 204-624 (828) |
Invested
$269.26
Value
$262.77
PnL
-$3.9
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$69
Value
$72.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
Invested
$38
Value
$36.83
PnL
-$1.17
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$24.07
Value
$23.11
PnL
-$0.96
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$13.31
PnL
+$0.41
Record
25%
204-624 (828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.