Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CD Anaitasuna, while the market favors Deportivo Alavés (92%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CD Anaitasuna (57%) · CD Anaitasuna at 8.0¢ · $962 held · ended Nov 10

Deportivo Alavés92¢CD Anaitasuna8¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CD Anaitasuna

Consensus Traders

CD Anaitasuna 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$962.33

Combined PnL

-$243.45

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 8¢

-83% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCD Anaitasuna at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Anaitasuna

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Deportivo Alavés 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Deportivo Alavés92%

CD Anaitasuna8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Deportivo Alavés3 traders

Total Value$166.9

Total Shares290

Combined PnL-$23.37

CD Anaitasuna4 traders

Total Value$73.09

Total Shares636

Combined PnL-$220.08

Deportivo Alavés — 43%CD Anaitasuna — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 55.8¢	$663.98	$722.34	+$58.36	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Deportivo Alavés leg	Deportivo Alavésavg 55.8¢	$441.42	$426.84	-$14.57
└ CD Anaitasuna leg	CD Anaitasunaavg 34.6¢	$222.57	$295.5	+$72.93
VeryLucky888	Deportivo Alavésavg 64¢	$128	$110	-$18	49% 235-240 (475)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 66¢	$56.1	$50.15	-$5.95	15% 16-94 (110)
VE VenusianCTR	CD Anaitasunaavg 47¢	$274.48	$49.64	-$224.84	25% 216-657 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 35¢	$9.48	$12.19	+$2.71	44% 79-102 (181)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 34.8¢	$6.96	$9.01	+$2.05	25% 218-645 (863)
SE sentrio<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 66¢	$6.17	$6.75	+$0.58	31% 170-384 (554)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	25% 217-656 (873)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$663.98

Value

$722.34

PnL

+$58.36

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Deportivo Alavés$441.4255.8¢-$14.57

CD Anaitasuna$222.5734.6¢+$72.93

VeryLucky888

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$128

Value

$110

PnL

-$18

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

Oddstorm<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$56.1

Value

$50.15

PnL

-$5.95

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

VenusianCTR

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$274.48

Value

$49.64

PnL

-$224.84

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$9.48

Value

$12.19

PnL

+$2.71

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$6.96

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$2.05

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

sentrio<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.58

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

LimousinCTR<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

Research grade

AvoidCD Anaitasuna at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CD Anaitasuna

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Deportivo Alavés 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Anaitasuna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.