Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Deportivo Alavés leading at halftime?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 38%
$1.3K
-$174.42
32.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 32.1¢ | $1.1K | $815.43 | -$259.11 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LI Limousin | Yesavg 61.8¢ | $147.5 | $219.14 | +$71.64 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 61¢ | $133.72 | $208.26 | +$74.53 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 89.1¢ | $47 | $48.18 | +$1.18 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $60.56 | $10.65 | -$49.91 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $5 | +$1.15 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $4.79 | +$0.99 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $19.53 | $4.65 | -$14.88 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$1,074.54
Value
$815.43
PnL
-$259.11
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$147.5
Value
$219.14
PnL
+$71.64
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$133.72
Value
$208.26
PnL
+$74.53
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$47
Value
$48.18
PnL
+$1.18
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$60.56
Value
$10.65
PnL
-$49.91
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.15
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$4.79
PnL
+$0.99
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$19.53
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$14.88
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.