Will CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.0K
-$41.61
96.1¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$3.44 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.1¢ | $706.35 | $670.42 | -$35.93 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.8¢ | $347.25 | $341.04 | -$6.21 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $276.36 | $278.73 | +$2.37 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $98.28 | $98.33 | +$0.05 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $37.21 | $38.57 | +$1.36 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $4.84 | $5.02 | +$0.19 | 38% 253-414 (667) |
RN1Invested
$1,528.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$3.44
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$706.35
Value
$670.42
PnL
-$35.93
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$347.25
Value
$341.04
PnL
-$6.21
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$276.36
Value
$278.73
PnL
+$2.37
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$98.28
Value
$98.33
PnL
+$0.05
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$37.21
Value
$38.57
PnL
+$1.36
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0.19
Record
38%
253-414 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.