Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$108.86

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL-$82.87

No3 traders

Total Value$6.05

Total Shares403

Combined PnL-$25.99

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 91.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$98.82	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 91.7¢	$115.97	$126.08	+$10.11	47% 148-167 (315)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 92.1¢	$102.97	$106.26	+$3.29	31% 170-384 (554)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 94.9¢	$98.97	$99.08	+$0.11	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$34.5	$36.86	+$2.36	3% 11-307 (318)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 94.4¢	$16.98	$17.06	+$0.08	25% 217-656 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10.9¢	$23.68	$3.26	-$20.43	44% 79-102 (181)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$1.62	$1.87	+$0.25	24% 99-314 (413)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$6.74	$0.92	-$5.82	36% 344-620 (964)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,194.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$98.82

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$115.97

Value

$126.08

PnL

+$10.11

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$102.97

Value

$106.26

PnL

+$3.29

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.97

Value

$99.08

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$36.86

PnL

+$2.36

Record

11-307 (318)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.98

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$0.08

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$23.68

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$20.43

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.25

Record

24%

99-314 (413)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$5.82

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.