Will UD Logroñés win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 50¢ · $887 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$887.24
-$3.19
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Yesavg 43¢ | $357.86 | $362.02 | +$4.16 | 53% 1083-956 (2039) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 58.2¢ | $312.75 | $303.48 | -$2.69 | 50% 20843-21072 (41915) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $77.44 | $75.15 | -$2.29 | 53% 1287-1130 (2417) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $59.39 | $57.63 | -$1.76 | 50% 1182-1169 (2351) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $32.02 | $31.07 | -$0.95 | 51% 1246-1188 (2434) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $29.98 | $30.02 | +$0.04 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $16.27 | $16.57 | +$0.3 | 49% 14392-15079 (29471) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $11.3 | $11.3 | -$0 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
Invested
$357.86
Value
$362.02
PnL
+$4.16
Record
53%
1083-956 (2039)
Invested
$312.75
Value
$303.48
PnL
-$2.69
Record
50%
20843-21072 (41915)
Invested
$77.44
Value
$75.15
PnL
-$2.29
Record
53%
1287-1130 (2417)
Invested
$59.39
Value
$57.63
PnL
-$1.76
Record
50%
1182-1169 (2351)
Invested
$32.02
Value
$31.07
PnL
-$0.95
Record
51%
1246-1188 (2434)
Invested
$29.98
Value
$30.02
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$16.27
Value
$16.57
PnL
+$0.3
Record
49%
14392-15079 (29471)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.3
Value
$11.3
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.