Will SD Amorebieta vs. UD Logroñés end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 72¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$108.37
-$0.67
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $43.97 | $44.3 | +$0.33 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $35.53 | $35.04 | -$0.49 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $13.61 | $13.12 | -$0.49 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $10.99 | $11.14 | +$0.15 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $4.94 | $4.76 | -$0.18 | 25% 215-633 (848) |
Invested
$43.97
Value
$44.3
PnL
+$0.33
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$35.53
Value
$35.04
PnL
-$0.49
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$13.61
Value
$13.12
PnL
-$0.49
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$11.14
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$0.18
Record
25%
215-633 (848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.