Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SD Amorebieta win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 27¢ · $359 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$358.86
-$6.36
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $253.29 | $261.9 | +$8.62 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.4¢ | $164.76 | $170.89 | +$6.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $88.53 | $91.01 | +$2.48 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $57.3 | $51.09 | -$6.21 | 37% 189-328 (517) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $34.96 | $34.92 | -$0.04 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $5.71 | $5.6 | -$0.11 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $5.35 | $5.35 | -$0 | 25% 213-642 (855) |
Invested
$253.29
Value
$261.9
PnL
+$8.62
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.3
Value
$51.09
PnL
-$6.21
Record
37%
189-328 (517)
Invested
$34.96
Value
$34.92
PnL
-$0.04
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.11
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
213-642 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.