Will FC Versailles 78 win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 87¢ · $325 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$325.01
-$33.52
65.5¢ → 86.5¢
+32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $113.86 | $128.85 | +$14.99 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $74.91 | $67.59 | -$7.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.7¢ | $38.95 | $61.26 | +$22.31 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.2¢ | $131.39 | $89.01 | -$42.38 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $38.06 | $39.11 | +$1.06 | 55% 5362-4302 (9664) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $25.55 | $25.28 | -$0.26 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.59 | $15.53 | +$5.94 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $11.91 | $11.91 | +$0 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $6.8 | -$0 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.09 | $6.18 | +$2.09 | 34% 365-702 (1067) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.33 | +$0.03 | 48% 2066-2225 (4291) |
Invested
$113.86
Value
$128.85
PnL
+$14.99
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.39
Value
$89.01
PnL
-$42.38
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
RN1<$100Invested
$38.06
Value
$39.11
PnL
+$1.06
Record
55%
5362-4302 (9664)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$25.28
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$15.53
PnL
+$5.94
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$11.91
Value
$11.91
PnL
+$0
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$2.09
Record
34%
365-702 (1067)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
2066-2225 (4291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.